In 2026, back-to-school retail sales are forecasted to reach $85.42 billion, making it one of the year’s most valuable retail moments. But with this scale also comes increased competition. Families are spreading purchases across a longer period, students are preparing for campus life across categories, and value-conscious shoppers are comparing prices and promotions before they buy.
For marketers, the answer is not simply to spend more during the season. It is to reach the right audiences earlier, with messages that reflect how they shop and spend. That means moving from broad seasonal targeting to audience-first strategies built around life stage, education status, shopping behavior, value signals, and purchase intent.
In this post, we’ll explore three trends shaping the 2026 back-to-school season, plus practical ways brands can use audience data to reach high-intent shoppers before the school bell rings.